It’s no secret that Joe Biden is wrestling with young voters. The 81-year-old president, who was first elected to the US Senate in 1972, has long struggled to excite Zoomers who feel the octogenarian is out of touch with their generation. Biden may have canceled a historic amount of student debt and taken bold action on climate change, but much of that is lost on young Americans, who think his policies haven’t gone far enough.
All this was true before October 7, when Biden pledged unconditional support for Israel after it was brutally attacked by Hamas. However, a clear generational divide has opened up around the administration’s response to Israel’s devastating counteroffensive in Gaza. Poll after poll shows the president losing ground with young progressives ages 18 to 34 who are critical of him and his handling of the war in the region. Beyond all of that, young Americans loathe the idea of voting in a potential rematch between Biden and Donald Trump, as if political dynamics have not changed since 2020. Some have even expressed concerns their peers won’t turn out to vote in 2024 as a result.
Still, there are glimmers of hope for Biden. Youth voters, who were quite skeptical of Biden in 2020, ultimately rallied behind him in high numbers. They also supported down-ballot Democrats and were credited with helping prevent a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections. But will they show up in 2024?
Jim Messina has advice for the president on this front. Having served as the deputy chief of staff in the Obama White House and as former president Barack Obama’s reelection campaign manager in 2012, he knows a thing or two about how to win over jaded young people. In his current role as CEO of the Messina Group, he’s advised more than a dozen presidents and prime ministers around the world.
Messina, 54, believes a lot has changed since 2012, like the advent of TikTok (which he says he’s “obsessed with”). However, in the following interview with Vanity Fair, he pointed to key campaign tactics Biden and his team can nevertheless lean on to convince skeptical young people that voting for Biden is vital in 2024. Our conversation below has been edited lightly for length and clarity.
Vanity Fair: The world is in conflict. Given that the president is continuing to lose faith from young progressives over his support for Israel in the Israel-Hamas war, what can he do to gain it back while maintaining that allegiance to Israel? And has he been vocal enough about where he stands on the humanitarian side of the war in Gaza?
Jim Messina: What I learned in the White House is—we went through some really tough moments like this as well—and part of the president’s job is to continue to talk through why he’s doing what he is doing. I thought his early [messaging] was very good on this. But let’s be honest, this is an incredibly important issue, and there’s probably no one issue other than maybe Roe that will sway this election either way. The people loudest on these issues aren’t a good representative of voters, and if you don’t love the way Biden’s handling the issue, you probably really hate Donald Trump’s Muslim ban. And so part of it is just the president saying, “Look,” to young voters, “This is why I’m doing what I’m doing.” And then number two is highlighting why Trump is so bad on these same issues, and having a really clear contrast. I’m a very big believer that campaigns have to have contrast.
Why do you think that’s currently getting lost? Some of the polls have shown that the same people who are critical of the president’s support for Israel are saying that they would maybe even vote for former president Trump for how he would handle it.
You kind of see it in a lot of things on Trump. His numbers are better historically than they have been when he was in the White House. Part of it is that people have forgotten what he did. He sort of disappeared. He just says crazy shit on Truth Social that no young voter ever sees. Once there’s an actual campaign and people are highlighting it, journalists like you will start to focus on those issues and start to write pieces on this. That’s what campaigns do. They drive those contrasts. When I talk to young voters, when I go give speeches at college campuses, people don’t remember that Donald Trump wanted to ban all Muslims from America. I mean, that just is too long ago. Some of them weren’t even voters then.
Do you think that if young progressives abstained from voting for the president over his handling of the conflict in Gaza—as some have said they will—it could shift the electoral outcome, or is it just a loud minority?
Oh, it absolutely could shift, but I don’t think people will abstain. Let’s remember how close American presidential elections are, and how close [the 2020] election was—under 15,000 votes in Arizona, 115,000 votes in Georgia. I mean, these elections are really, really close. I remember when I was a young voter, I was a big Jerry Brown guy in 1992. And then Bill Clinton became the nominee, and I was pissed. And I’m like, “Should I vote for him?” And I’m like, “Well, George Bush is a disaster.” And it took me a while. I had to look through the issues and understand why the choice was really clear. And so I think voters are gonna go through that process and need to go through that process. But let’s be very clear. Not voting is a vote for Donald Trump, because these elections are just too close—and you could accidentally vote for a guy who wants a Muslim ban, who doesn’t believe in climate change, who wants to ban abortion in the entire country, who doesn’t share the values that most young voters share.
When it comes to the war between Russia and Ukraine, there has been recent reporting that says that the administration might shift their strategy a little bit. But polling has shown that young people are the most supportive of US financial support for Ukraine. Do you think that the president could further risk losing young people’s support over his actions there too?
I think young voters approach these issues with a sense of equality: “Is the economy working for me? Is it working for other people?” They’re really interconnected. They also look at foreign policy from the same standpoint. They look at this and say, “You know, we support Ukraine, because there’s a whole bunch of people out there who are being harmed by Putin, are being harmed by war and aggression.” Biden’s doing the right thing here. And I think it’s important to continue to talk about that and talk about it from an economic standpoint. I believe the same on abortion. I think the best politician talking about this was Gretchen Whitmer last election cycle…when she said, let’s be very clear, abortion is an economic issue. And I think we need to say that in Ukraine as well, to talk about why this is a good investment for America.
Shifting gears a little bit. Young people still feel betrayed by a broken promise on student debt cancellation, given that the Supreme Court blocked his initial plan. Do you think he can effectively repair that sense of betrayal that some young voters have voiced?
I do. I think part of it is talking about the Supreme Court, because it’s the same Supreme Court that is getting rid of their right to choose as well, and saying, “It doesn’t matter what kind of voter you are—progressive, moderate, whatever—the Supreme Court is doing some really damaging things to you.” They’ve made it impossible to forgive your student loans, which the president tried in a variety of ways to do, and now they’re making it possible for a myriad of states to take away your constitutional freedom to choose your own decisions in your own body. I think the campaign absolutely has to explain that and can’t just assume that they can say, “Oh, we tried.” One of the things that would happen if [young people] didn’t vote is, if Donald Trump wins, he’ll put more justices on the court that will be completely anathema to all of the things that young voters care about.
You’ve written about a third-party candidate—specifically, that the idea of this “unity ticket” with a Republican and Democrat could end up leading to Trump back in the White House. I’m curious what your advice is to young people who might not feel like they belong in either party, and who may feel like that third-party candidate is the best option for them.
What the campaign needs to say is the truth, which is: The stakes are tremendous, particularly for young voters. In the last 40 years, there’s been real, well-funded third-party candidates who have gotten 19% and 12% [of the popular vote], and gotten zero electoral votes. So it doesn’t matter how great the third-party candidate is, they’re not going to get any electoral votes and they’re not going to be president. The question is: Who are they going to take votes away from? If I could wave my magic fucking wand, I would get rid of the Electoral College tomorrow. But I can’t. And so it is just really important to realize that a vote for a third party is an effective vote for Donald Trump. If you want to have an immigration policy that makes sense, if you want to move forward on climate change, then Joe Biden’s your choice. And it doesn’t mean you have to agree with him on everything, and it doesn’t mean you can’t push him on a variety of issues, but it does mean that this election is super important for all those issues.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been doing this college campus tour, the Fight For Our Freedoms Tour. Should the president be going to college campuses too?
He will, absolutely. The question is when and how. Barack Obama didn’t go to college campuses, except for his announcement, until 2012. So I think that stuff will occur. But Kamala’s been a real hero here and been pushing really hard and doesn’t get enough credit for what she’s done.
You mentioned Obama. Biden is not Obama, even though there are similarities between them and what they stand for. On the topic of age, I’m curious how you would advise Biden to appeal to the youngest voters when he’s closer to their grandfather’s age?
This is a really important point. First of all, Obama represented hope and change. Biden is essentially guarding against the American apocalypse. And, you know, 2008 and 2012 created this energy that people really fought for. And that’s kind of exactly what 2020 was against Donald Trump and likely what 2024 will be. It really is the end of democracy if Donald Trump wins. It really is the end of abortion. I mean, he did it, we now don’t have abortion rights in a majority of states. [Biden’s campaign] has got to go back to values. It’s not about age, it’s not about anything else. It is about values, and do you share those values?
The president is often commended for his ability to show empathy. From school shootings, to climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, a mental health crisis, economic strife, war and international crises (and the list goes on), today’s youngest voters have been through a lot! How can the president show he empathizes with this in a way that wins over young people?
My general advice to both the president and the party is: Don’t assume that young voters are Democrats. Assume that they care very deeply about issues first. To your point, these are Sandy Hook kids. They grew up with that. Treat these voters like persuasion targets, meaning having real conversations with them. Don’t assume they’re gonna vote, don’t assume they’re gonna support you, talk about some of the things you have done. Lead with values. Young voters tend to be value voters and they care very deeply about some of these things, and the president is on their side on these issues.
The second thing is it shouldn’t all just be from the president. It should be about getting good messengers. It should be about getting young messengers, social media influencers. We can talk about this in a second, but I am obsessed with TikTok, in part because I think it’s the most interesting place where politics is being discussed. And, you know, allowing people to have their own discourse that the campaign doesn’t control, and just start to talk about why these issues are important.
One of the biggest issues for young voters is the economy. What can President Biden do to lean in there, and which pieces of the post-COVID economic recovery story should his campaign be highlighting most?
The president deserves credit. Everyone said we’d have a recession; we didn’t. The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 70 years. Obviously, he worked very hard to forgive student debt. He’s been lowering costs. The price of gas is below $3 for the first time since COVID. He took on Big Pharma and won. They have to make that case, and they’ve been doing that, but that’s what a campaign is for.
Young people aren’t always able to name the Inflation Reduction Act, or the CHIPS and Science Act, or the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. So whether it’s him or his surrogates, how can the campaign talk about these pieces of policy in a way that’s digestible? And to help people actually understand what these nitty gritty terms mean?
It is very unlikely you can do a campaign to explain what the IRA is or what some of these things are. It’s, again, back to why I’m so obsessed with TikTok, because that’s a great forum. It’s much easier to have real voters talking about these things and saying, “Because of what Joe Biden passed, electric cars are $7,500 cheaper, gas prices are lower, unemployment is down.” Making examples of things and worrying less about the names of these things—because we’re in this age of political cynicism, which I understand, and people really trust what their friends and family say, especially on social media. The two campaigns I was part of used Twitter to do that. Now, I would argue that you should use TikTok to do it.
In terms of those mediums and messengers, are there any particular messengers or influencers who you think the campaign should rely on?
I am probably the biggest Swiftie in the world, and I would do whatever I could to get Taylor involved in this thing. I think that would be super good. People forget that the most popular political figure in America is not my former boss, the 44th president of the United States, but it is his wife. And getting Michelle involved at the right time I think is very, very important. But then I really do believe in this theory of personal organizing, in this theory of getting your friends and family. I think that’s how we changed our positions in America on gay rights, on immigration. And it’s how we have to do politics now.
You mentioned Taylor, should they be trying to get Travis Kelce too?
Well, as a Broncos fan, that’s somewhat hard for me. But yes. I think the stuff he’s done about why he got vaxxed was really good. And, you know, they’re a great love story. I don’t think anyone’s worthy of her, but he seems pretty close.
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