In the months since Donald Trump clinched the Republican nomination, the Trump campaign and its conservative media allies have portrayed Joe Biden as a senile octogenarian being puppeteered by White House aides, Weekend at Bernie’s–style. This line of attack has certainly resonated with voters’ justified concerns about Biden’s advanced age. But it also carries a significant risk going into Thursday’s presidential debate on CNN: A strong showing by Biden will neutralize Trump’s claims about his opponent’s cognitive decline.

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The Trump campaign knows this. That’s why, in recent days, Trump and his aides have been working overtime to mitigate the damage should Biden deliver a commanding performance similar to his fiery State of the Union address. The Trump campaign’s first tactic is the most Trumpian: Spread a nasty smear. At a Pennsylvania rally on June 22, Trump made the baseless claim that Biden will use drugs to get “jacked up” for the debate. Trump senior adviser Jason Miller told me that Biden’s State of the Union speech was “evidence” that Biden uses performance-enhancing drugs. “The Joe Biden who delivered the State of the Union is not the same Joe Biden the American people see every day. It’s clearly two different people. It’s literally Jekyll and Hyde,” Miller said. (Asked about Trump’s drug claims, a Biden campaign spokesperson said the former president is “resorting to desperate, obviously false lies.”)

Secondly, the Trump campaign is lowering the bar by playing the media’s victim. If Biden wins on Thursday, Trump can say CNN rigged the debate in Biden’s favor, regardless of whatever millions of Americans see with their own eyes. “It’s a three-on-one dynamic with Biden, [Jake] Tapper and [Dana] Bash,” Miller told me. “The structure makes it impossible for President Trump to get a fair shake,” Miller said. The Trump campaign will also say the media grades Biden on a curve. “The media has lowered the bar so much that if Biden can stand up for 90 minutes, he’ll be declared the winner,” Miller told me.

Trumpworld’s third move is to turn Biden’s serious debate preparation against him by highlighting that Trump is conspicuously not doing formal debate prep—a clear flex to show Trump isn’t worried about Biden. According to Miller, Biden is spending a week prepping at Camp David because the Biden campaign didn’t expect Trump to accept their offer to debate with a mainstream media moderator. “The Biden people didn’t want the debate to happen. The terms of the debate were so one-sided in their favor they didn’t think Trump would accept. But Trump called their bluff. That’s why Biden is freaking out and taking a week off to prepare,” Miller said.

All of these tactics add up to a difficult messaging challenge: Trump wants to keep up the attacks on Biden’s age while also explaining away a potentially strong performance from Biden. Some in Trumpworld are worried Trump is walking into a trap. According to two sources, Steve Bannon has told people Trump should never have agreed to debate. One of the sources told me Bannon explained that if Biden bombs the debate, Democrats will find a way to replace Biden on the ticket (a scenario Miller shot down), and if Biden performs well, the race becomes even closer. Bannon declined to comment.