America has a tradition of fabled debates. There were the seven Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858, held during the walk-up to the election for a US Senate seat in Illinois. There have been debates on creationism, on women’s suffrage, on Prohibition. And in 1960, the nation gathered around the electronic hearth to watch Vice President Richard M. Nixon go one-on-one with Senator John F. Kennedy. That series of encounters—the first televised debates between presidential candidates—would kick off what has become a quadrennial spectacle. On debate nights, voters in large numbers begin to really pay attention to the race for the White House.

And it is not hyperbole to say that this could be the most consequential presidential debate in US political history. Because American democracy is, quite literally, at stake. And because two highly possible outcomes could dramatically change the trajectory of the race.

The first is that, contrary to the current narrative, Joe Biden shows up as the candidate who is animated, coherent, sharp, focused, energetic, and vigorous, while Donald Trump appears confused, disoriented, stumbling, and old. That would put Biden back at the wheel of a competitive race.

The second possibility is that Trump just crushes Biden. That Biden has cognitive lapses, loses focus, and reinforces the already-prevailing Republican narrative about his age. And Trump just pummels him, haymaker after haymaker, with Biden going down for a three-count.

Of course, the other scenarios, which are perhaps most likely, are that they both do fine, or do equally poorly, or bloody each other, and the race doesn’t change much.

But those are the stakes for Biden, and they’re why I give him and his team credit for throwing deep. Because they have to. This is not vintage Green Bay Packers time—run it up the middle for a yard or two at a time. This is the hour for a West Coast offense, flea-flickers, and Statue of Liberty plays.

The reason why debates can be so dramatic and exciting is that there is no net. If you fall, you hit the floor. The difference is that, because of MAGA-base fanaticism, Trump can get back up off the floor if he’s the one who falls. Because his supporters will somehow rationalize it all. Say the whole thing was a deepfake. Say it was rigged. Say he was winning before they even turned on the mics.

On the other hand, if Biden goes down in this first match, the Democratic bed-wetting could become a fire hose. And I know it’s not the strategy Team Biden intends, but under this scenario, there really could be a mass cry among delegates and party mandarins for a plan B at the convention.

There is no absence of punditry providing valuable insight into how both could win or lose this marquee event. But I think there is one sure way for Biden to come out on top.

Paint Trump as a loser. Period.

Trump is all about psychology. He’s a massive mess of narcissism. It’s always all about him. He ran for president initially not because he thought he could win (he didn’t), but because he wanted eyeballs. He wanted to be the center of attention. And he knew the best way to get the biggest, brightest, hottest spotlight in the world was to run for president.

Everything to Trump is about being a winner. Or, to put it more pointedly, about not being a loser. And Biden, for example, can make a very factual, effective case that, when it comes to jobs, Trump was a miserable failure. The worst since Hoover. Fewer jobs when he left than when he started. Meanwhile, Biden, in this regard, has been one of the most successful presidents in history.

Time and again, Biden, over the course of the debate, could just calmly and consistently needle a thin-skinned Trump about being the biggest loser of all time. Pick two or three issues: a botched pandemic response, an aversion to NATO, his support for extremists, his chaotic first term, his two impeachments and 34 felony counts. Just jab, poke, and parry, and I believe Trump will unravel.

Biden has bet it all on the belief that he can survive 15 rounds. Good for him. Now put on the gloves and swing.