For weeks, pundits and prognosticators questioned whether the fall of Roe v. Wade would actually be a key voting motivator this election cycle. Democratic consultant James Carville’s famed 1992 adage, “It’s the economy, stupid,” rang loud as the narrative grew that gas prices and inflation would overshadow the importance of protecting women’s reproductive rights. Then Josh Shapiro beat Republican Doug Mastriano, who had indicated, without hesitation, that he would sign whatever antiabortion law was put in front of him. Kentucky voters blocked a constitutional amendment that would have denied any abortion rights. Vermont enshrined abortion protections into its state constitution, while Michigan did the same. And California voters went one step further, also writing access to contraceptives into law. Democrats vastly surpassed expectations on Election Day.
As the results rolled in throughout the night, one thing became crystal clear: Abortion was on the ballot.
“It’s such a big win,” Gabby Richards, a Planned Parenthood spokesperson and Pennsylvania native, said. I had called her at roughly 10:30 p.m. Tuesday night, just as NBC projected Shapiro’s victory. Richards was screaming into the phone as Planned Parenthood’s staff cheered uproariously in the background. “I am so emotional,” she said. A longtime ally of abortion activists, Shapiro is expected to serve as a bulwark against Pennsylvania’s Republican-controlled legislature; he promised to veto any draconian antiabortion legislation that might cross his desk—a reality his immediate Democratic predecessor, Tom Wolf, has faced.
Across the board, Democrats held on to crucial governor seats: Wisconsin’s Tony Evers, similarly to Shapiro, emphasized his promise to use his power to knock down legislation prohibiting access to abortion in the state. Kansas Democrat Laura Kelly also kept her governorship for one more term, providing a veto to the Republican-led state legislature. Incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer beat Republican Tudor Dixon, securing another term in the Michigan governor’s office.
Support for abortion rights rang even clearer in direct ballot measures. The potential of ballot measures came into sharp focus earlier this year when Kansans overwhelmingly voted against a constitutional amendment that would have allowed state legislators to restrict abortion access, which is currently protected in the state. It served as not only a model for activists in other states, but a portent of what could happen in other Republican-led or “purple” states. Ballot measures on abortion certainly had a showing on Tuesday.
Perhaps most notably, however, the saliency of reproductive rights came into sharp focus in two red states: Kentucky and Montana. A ballot measure that would have enshrined the removal of abortion rights into the Kentucky state constitution and barred taxpayer funding for the procedure resoundingly failed on Tuesday night. The vote represents a major victory for progressive activists in Mitch McConnell’s backyard. That said, Kentucky does still have a “trigger” ban on the books that went into effect after the fall of Roe v. Wade, which doesn’t include exceptions for rape or incest. For abortions to resume in the deep-red state, pro-choice activists have to persuade the Kentucky Supreme Court that abortion is currently shielded under existing privacy protections in the state constitution.
Similarly, a convoluted and confusing ballot measure put forth in Montana that sought to define any embryo or fetus as a legal person, including those born prematurely or that survive attempted abortion—even if there is ultimately still no chance of survival—failed Tuesday night. The measure would have imposed harsh penalties and potential prosecution on medical professionals.
“This is the first time that they are able to express their outrage and their frustration,” Planned Parenthood Action Fund president Alexis McGill Johnson said of voters, in reference to the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which gutted federal protections for abortion. “We’ve been taking people back to that moment, that moment of where they were when it came down—how it made them feel, asking them to channel that into those last hours, because everybody does remember that experience and they understand what it means. Freedom is on the ballot and democracy is on the ballot. And that’s been resonating.”
Roughly 12 hours before the Pennsylvania governor’s race was called, McGill was driving across Pennsylvania, headed to her final stop on a tour through a string of battleground states. By the end of the whirlwind stretch, McGill had campaigned with the likes of Vice President Kamala Harris and Scandal’s Kerry Washington. Asked about the narrative that the economy would trump the fall of Roe, McGill was blunt. “I think it’s a lazy argument. I think that voters can hold many things. They can hold the economy and inflation; they can hold freedom and democracy and be deeply concerned,” she said. “I do think that the fall of Roe has made this election competitive.”
Ballot proposals, according to Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, which backs progressive ballot measures, can be “a much more distilled way of getting a sense of voters’ enthusiasm as opposed to candidates where the candidate is not just responsible for their views on abortion, but also the economy and immigration and social security and all sorts of other things.” After the ballot measure to protect abortion in Michigan passed on Tuesday night, Hall hailed the victory. “When voters have a chance to decide on this issue, they choose to protect their rights. Everyone deserves access to reproductive care, and we’re looking forward to building off this momentum to pass ballot measures to protect abortion rights wherever we can.”
Of course, while reproductive rights activists claimed a number of wins on Tuesday night, a post-Roe America is still the reality. Since Dobbs, more than a dozen states have banned most abortions. And while Democrats didn’t suffer the slaughter the party braced for, there’s not enough support federally to codify Roe. Though a number of congressional races are still yet to be called, Democrats are still expected to lose the majority in the House—opening the door to a possible slew of investigations and draconian antiabortion legislation.
In some states, such as Nebraska—which emerged as an unlikely “haven” state for abortion—anti-choice lawmakers seemingly gained the upper hand in votes on Tuesday. After maintaining a slim margin to block an abortion ban in the state, abortion-rights activists appear to have lost their edge. “Based on previous votes by returning senators and the statements and antiabortion endorsements of new senators, extremist lawmakers appear to have the votes they need to pass an abortion ban. In Nebraska, you need 33 people present and voting to end debate on a filibuster in order to pass a bill,” Andi Curry Grubb, state executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Nebraska, said in a statement. “So if nothing changes in how folks vote, then they have that number. That said, we know that the majority of Nebraskans do not want abortion banned, and we also think the lessons of Kansas and Kentucky will be heard by some of our more reasonable conservatives. We have been preparing for this scenario, and we are ready to fight with everything we have to protect abortion in Nebraska.”
But in McGill’s view, this is just the beginning. “We lost a significant freedom, and this election [was an] opportunity for people to express that frustration. It also won’t be the last,” she said. “This is the beginning of a very long arc to fight back.… Elections are inflection points and movements, and we'll need to continue to strengthen and drive forward.”
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